Eight years ago, in December 2005, I began warning of an impending economic crisis that would commence when the rate of growth of private debt started to fall. My warnings hit a popular chord: journalists throughout the world picked it up and publicised my views – as well as similar arguments from Nouriel Roubini, Dean Baker, Ann Pettifor, Michael Hudson, Wynne Godley, and a few others.
But our arguments were ignored by the economics profession because, according to mainstream economic theory, private debt should have no impact on aggregate demand. As Bernanke put it, lending simply transfers spending power from lender to borrower, and “pure redistributions should have no significant macro-economic effects” (Bernanke, Essays on the Great Depression, p. 24).