Steve Keen's Debtwatch

To any­one out there with deep pockets–or to lots of peo­ple with shal­low­er ones–I need finan­cial assis­tance for the Min­sky pro­gram. I have been wait­ing for fund­ing from a source that I’ll reveal once it final­ly comes through, but it has now been delayed for over six months from when it was first moot­ed to arrive. If I am lucky, it will come through in January–another 4 months away.

The prob­lem is that I may lose my pro­gram­mer by then to the vicis­si­tudes of hav­ing to earn a liv­ing. I have been the archi­tect of Min­sky, but Rus­sell Stan­dish has been the builder, and I was incred­i­bly lucky to secure his ser­vices when the project began 3 years ago.

This is the talk I gave at the first con­fer­ence of the Inter­na­tion­al Stu­dent Ini­tia­tive for Plu­ral­ism in Eco­nom­ics, held in the beau­ti­ful Ger­man town of Tue­bin­gen, Ger­many on Sep­tem­ber 19–21 2014.

I cov­er Min­sky, mon­ey, com­plex­i­ty, the role of debt in aggre­gate demand & aggre­gate sup­ply, and the eco­nom­ic cri­sis. I spoke too fast and cov­ered top­ics at too high a lev­el for many of the under­grad­u­ate stu­dents in the audi­ence who are part of the rebel­lion against the dom­i­nance of eco­nom­ics tuition and research by Neo­clas­si­cal eco­nom­ics. I hope putting it up here gives those stu­dents and oth­ers a chance to “hit the pause but­ton” and go through my talk more slow­ly.

Scot­land vot­ed 55:45 to remain in the UK, but the very fact that the vote was even close was a seri­ous shock to the polit­i­cal estab­lish­ment in Europe. UK Prime Min­is­ter David Cameron had orig­i­nal­ly allowed only a Yes or No vote on full inde­pen­dence in the ref­er­en­dum, rather than a three-option poll includ­ing the “Maybe” of a greater devo­lu­tion of pow­er from White­hall to Edin­burgh, in the belief that the No vote would be so resound­ing that it would ter­mi­nate the inde­pen­dence move­ment per­ma­nent­ly. The Maybe, he believed, might well have got across the line, when in gen­er­al he and the Tories didn’t want to cede any pow­er north of Hadrian’s Wall.

You’ve just made your morn­ing cof­fee, and look up in hor­ror as you realise that the gas burn­er has set your kitchen ablaze. So you take deci­sive action: you pour your cof­fee on the floor.

Such is the real impact of the Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank’s lat­est attempt to revive the Euro­pean econ­o­my, which cut rates a whop­ping 0.1 per cent (from 0.15 per cent to 0.05 per cent), and increased the neg­a­tive inter­est rate imposed on bank reserve deposits from a huge ‑0.1 per cent to a gar­gan­tu­an ‑0.2 per cent.

I have a ridicu­lous­ly large num­ber of pub­lic talks com­ing up this month. It all starts on Wednes­day Sep­tem­ber 10^th, and does­n’t let up until Sun­day Sep­tem­ber 21^st—the day before Induc­tion Week begins at Kingston Uni­ver­si­ty, where I am now Head of Eco­nom­ics, Pol­i­tics and His­to­ry, and com­mit­ted to mak­ing Kingston the world’s lead­ing cen­tre for plu­ral­ist edu­ca­tion and research in eco­nom­ics. Check the links below if you’re able to make any of these talks in, in order: Sheffield; New York; Glas­gow; Kingston; and Tub­in­gen, Ger­many. I’ll cov­er talks in Octo­ber in a sub­se­quent post.

I’m read­ing and enjoy­ing some “chick-lit” at the moment–or as a review­er on Ama­zon called it, “the per­fect blend of chick-lit and bitch-lit”–entitled “How To Un-Mar­ry a Mil­lion­aire”.

Per­son­al dis­clo­sure time: the book is the first nov­el by my good friend, script-writer and film pro­duc­er Bil­lie Mor­ton. I’ve been mean­ing to read it for a while now, and it’s cur­rent­ly sup­ply­ing wel­come relief from the tedi­um of read­ing ECB min­utes as I draft my next Busi­ness Spec­ta­tor col­umn.

Please cir­cu­late wide­ly – the dead­line for appli­ca­tions is 22 Sep­tem­ber! A short term lec­tur­ing posi­tion has just been adver­tised at Kingston Uni­ver­si­ty, where I am now Head of Eco­nom­ics, Pol­i­tics and His­to­ry. This is a fixed-term post to 30 June 2015. Though the peri­od is brief, it is an oppor­tu­ni­ty to work in our very het­ero­dox-friend­ly depart­ment.

The adver­tise­ment is here:

http://www.jobs.ac.uk/job/AJN000/lec­tur­er-in-eco­nom­ic­s/

To apply, click here: https://ig24.i‑grasp.com/fe/tpl_kingstonuniversity01.asp?newms=jj&id=86495&aid=14193

Details on Kingston’s Polit­i­cal Econ­o­my Research group can be found here: http://fass.kingston.ac.uk/research/perg/

For more details, please get in touch with me via  steve.keen AT kingston.ac.uk.

The glob­al finan­cial cri­sis took the vast major­i­ty of the eco­nom­ics pro­fes­sion by sur­prise. Though there were indi­vid­ual main­stream econ­o­mists — such as Robert Shiller and Joseph Stiglitz — who claim to have warned of the cri­sis, no main­stream eco­nom­ic mod­el fore­saw any­thing like what even­tu­at­ed in 2007. In fact, main­stream mod­el pre­dic­tions led to politi­cians being advised to expect tran­quil eco­nom­ic con­di­tions ahead. The OECD’s advice in its June 2007 Eco­nom­ic Out­look was typ­i­cal:

If you know any UK sec­ondary school stu­dent who is con­sid­er­ing doing eco­nom­ics at Uni­ver­si­ty, please refer them to this blog post.

This Thurs­day, you’ll find out your A‑Level results. What­ev­er they are, if you are con­sid­er­ing doing an eco­nom­ics degree, then I want you to con­sid­er doing it at Kingston Uni­ver­si­ty.

At first glance, that’s some­thing you would­n’t do if you had a choice, because Kingston rates well down the list in the Guardian League Table. Why choose Kingston—which is at the bot­tom of the Guardian’s list—if, for exam­ple, your A‑level results would get you into Oxford, which is at the top?

Hey, great news! Australia’s unem­ploy­ment rate fell by 0.4 per cent last month! Did you hear?

You didn’t? That’s fun­ny. I was sure Joe would tell you.

What do you mean, it rose by 0.4 per cent? Oh, you’re talk­ing about the ABS fig­ure! Yeah, that’s bad, but if you look at what hap­pened to the Roy Mor­gan unem­ploy­ment rate, the news is real­ly good: it’s fall­en from 10.6 per cent to 10.2 per cent! If this keeps up, pret­ty soon unem­ploy­ment in Aus­tralia will be below 10 per cent!