Welcome aboard the FF Titanic

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I pub­lished this com­men­tary on Crikey and in the New­cas­tle Her­ald yes­ter­day; I will prob­a­bly expand on this for my Octo­ber Debt­watch Report, but here’s a “heads up” before next month–after all, with the speed with which events are unfold­ing, some­thing else might sup­plant this top­ic by then.

Welcome aboard the FF Titanic

Anoth­er day, anoth­er finan­cial col­lapse. The effec­tive nation­al­i­sa­tion of Fan­nie Mae and Fred­die Mac last week was ini­tial­ly greet­ed by the mar­ket, yet again, as The End Of The Cri­sis. Then Lehman Broth­ers teetered and final­ly fell into bank­rupt­cy. The cri­sis was, once again, alive and well.

Two good commentaries on The Panic

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I don’t have time to write a full blog on this myself, but here are some of the best com­men­taries to explain what’s going on that I’ve seen recent­ly.

On AIG:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/opinion/16lewitt.html

On Lehman, coun­ter­par­ty risk, and the dan­gers of a deriv­a­tives melt­down (which an AIG col­lapse might well pre­cip­i­tate:

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2234

Debate on Property Bubble on October 15

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The Our Finance Blogs site (http://ourfinanceblogs.com/forum/) is host­ing an online debate on “Prop­er­ty 2009: Crash, Boom or Stag­nate?!”. I will be one of the pro­tag­o­nists in the debate. If you’d like to take part, go to:

 http://ourfinanceblogs.com/forum/index.php?action=register

and sign in. Check:

http://ourfinanceblogs.com/forum/index.php?topic=7.msg9#msg9

for fur­ther details.

 

Click here to log access the debate

Click here to log access the debate

Podcasts 4–6 now functional–I hope!

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The pod­casts should now be func­tion­al. The prob­lem was sim­ple but obscure: my serv­er runs Lin­ux, which is case sen­si­tive, and the file names were all in low­er­case, but spec­i­fied with ini­tial cap­i­tals in the XML and HTML files.

I’ve suc­cess­ful­ly down­loaded and played them from the HTML. I would appre­ci­ate some­one try­ing the subcribe/iTunes update and see­ing whether they are now cor­rect there too.

SBS Dateline tonight with George Negus

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George negus is inter­view­ing me and Peter Schiff on Date­line tonight. The top­ic is the attempt­ed res­cue of Fan­nie Mae and Fred­die Mac, and what that may mean for the glob­al econ­o­my and Aus­tralia in par­tic­u­lar.

Date­line goes to air tonight (Wednes­day) at 8.30pm. It is also acces­si­ble on the web, the day after the pro­gram goes to air.

In oth­er news, the pod­casts are cur­rent­ly not func­tion­al, but I hope to fix them up tomor­row.

3 new podcast entries–and SBS Insight tomorrow

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Well Stu Cameron has been on the ball, but clear­ly I’ve stuffed up link­ing the files on my site! Sev­er­al read­ers have told me that the pod­casts 3–6 can’t be accessed.

At some stage they will be avail­able, but I have a rush of work on right now so please wait until I put up a new post with prop­er­ly test­ed links. My apolo­gies for the con­fu­sion in the mean­time.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/podcast/debtwatch.xml

And you can also access the audio files from:

http://www.debtdeflation.com/podcast/

The top­ics of these three pod­casts (Num­bers 4, 5 and 6) are:

DebtWatch No 26 September 2008: Losing control of the margin?

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Late last year on SBS News, when Stan Grant asked me which way the RBA would move rates in 2008, I replied “Up, and then down”, Stan quipped “Spo­ken like a true economist–an even hand­ed answer!”–to which I replied “More down than up”.

I expect­ed the intial rate ris­es because of the RBA’s focus on the rate of infla­tion, and a sub­se­quent fall, not because infla­tion would be head­ing down, but because the econ­o­my would be–and the RBA rate would be forced to fol­low it

Debtwatch No. 25: How much worse can “It” get?

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Last month closed with some far from com­fort­ing news about the state of the US hous­ing mar­ket (sales and prices still falling), US finan­cial insti­tu­tions (Fan­nie Mae and Fred­die Mac in need of res­cue), Aus­tralian banks (NAB’s 90% write-down of its US CDO port­fo­lio). Then ABS fig­ures showed that retail sales had fall­en “unex­pect­ed­ly” by one per­cent in June. The recent ral­ly in stock mar­kets came to a sud­den end, and after a brief peri­od of renewed con­fi­dence, the ques­tion “how much worse can “It” get?” is once again doing the rounds.

My answer is: a lot worse. The empir­i­cal grounds for this assess­ment are:

Debtwatch No. 24 July 2008

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My Comment on the Green Paper

Sen­a­tor Nick Sher­ry, as Min­is­ter for Super­an­nu­a­tion and Cor­po­rate Law, has released a Green Paper Finan­cial Ser­vices and Cred­it Reform: Improv­ing, Sim­pli­fy­ing and Stan­dar­d­is­ing Finan­cial Ser­vices and Cred­it Reg­u­la­tion (June 2008)

This is a very apt time for such an enquiry. It is now over a decade since the Wal­lis Com­mit­tee sup­port­ed fur­ther dereg­u­la­tion of the finan­cial sys­tem, and the con­se­quences of that dereg­u­la­tion are now evi­dent.  I doubt that a com­plete rever­sal of pol­i­cy is polit­i­cal­ly fea­si­ble now, but this inquiry may set the high water mark in the belief that the less reg­u­lat­ed finan­cial mar­kets are, the bet­ter.

My submission to… the Wallis Committee

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I recent­ly made a sub­mis­sion to the Sen­ate Eco­nom­ics Com­mit­tee on the RBA (Enhanced Inde­pen­dence) Bill, where I argued against the Bill–as did all four pub­lic sub­mis­sions.

After mak­ing that sub­mis­sion (which I’ll post here short­ly) I thought I’d check out my sub­mis­sion to the Wal­lis Committee–since I argued that the RBA and the reg­u­la­to­ry author­i­ties in gen­er­al, while they may appear to have suc­ceed­ed in con­trol­ling infla­tion, have presided over the biggest spec­u­la­tive bub­ble in world his­to­ry.

The secu­ri­ti­sa­tion of loans was a major part of this bub­ble, which of course, no-one could have fore­seen… or at least that’s the line from con­ven­tion­al econ­o­mists.