Many elements of the recently announced package are justified. When the economy is about to go into a debt-induced recession, government spending both boosts demand, and provides the private sector with cash flow needed to meet its debt repayment commitments.
Equally vital was the guarantee of all bank deposits. A run on the banks would be disastrous, and this guarantee ensures that this will not happen.
This week, financial markets truly succumbed to The Panic. The US Dow Jones and S&P500 Indices lost 21%; Australia’s All Ordinaries fell 16%. “Buy and Hold” gave way to “Get Out At All Costs”.
When we look back with the eyes of history, the ninth day of the tenth month of 2008 will be the Black Thursday on which the world’s biggest ever speculative bubble finally burst.
The Stock Market Crash of 2008
Just two years ago, Central Banks appeared triumphant. Inflation, the scourge of the 1970s and 80s, appeared dead, the financial crisis of the Tech Wreck had been contained, economies worldwide were booming, and stock markets and house prices were spiralling ever upwards.
Then along came the Subprime Crisis, and we received a rude reminder of why Central Banks were created in the first place: to ensure that the world would never again experience a Great Depression.
Just a quick heads up to all blog readers that I’ll be on Channel Ten’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday morning at 8am, and Channel Nine’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday evening at 8.30pm.
You all know the movie plot: the Evil Scientist has laced the town’s water supply with a poison. All will die unless The Antidote is added, and he holds the city to Ransom. All seems lost until the Hero rides to the Rescue with The Antidote. The Hero puts the Evil Scientist behind bars, and all is well (until The Sequel anyway).
Are there any parallels here with Paulson’s currently terminated Wall Street bailout?
In my column in Crikey yesterday (see below) I promised to provide some “back of the envelope” calculations on why the Paulson plan can’t work.
It’s not my usual standard or style of analysis–just a simple text-only flowchart mapping out of the possible consequences of a US$2 trillion bailout, financed by either bond issues or printing money–but a promise is a promise, so here it is. Since the images are quite difficult to read, I’ve attached the Powerpoint file as well.
I’ve had a couple of very enjoyable chats this week with Red Symons, on the ABC Breakfast Show in Melbourne, and some friends have been trying to get me to throw some old Skyhooks song lines into the conversation–such as “Horror Movie” and the like (for any non-Australian and/or non-“Living in the Seventies” readers, Red was a guitarist–and played drums on the one occasion I saw them live, at Sydney University’s Union Building in the early ’70s–and lyricist; here is a link for the lyrics).
I published this commentary on Crikey and in the Newcastle Herald yesterday; I will probably expand on this for my October Debtwatch Report, but here’s a “heads up” before next month–after all, with the speed with which events are unfolding, something else might supplant this topic by then.
Another day, another financial collapse. The effective nationalisation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last week was initially greeted by the market, yet again, as The End Of The Crisis. Then Lehman Brothers teetered and finally fell into bankruptcy. The crisis was, once again, alive and well.
I don’t have time to write a full blog on this myself, but here are some of the best commentaries to explain what’s going on that I’ve seen recently.
On AIG:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/opinion/16lewitt.html
On Lehman, counterparty risk, and the dangers of a derivatives meltdown (which an AIG collapse might well precipitate:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2234
The Our Finance Blogs site (http://ourfinanceblogs.com/forum/) is hosting an online debate on “Property 2009: Crash, Boom or Stagnate?!”. I will be one of the protagonists in the debate. If you’d like to take part, go to:
http://ourfinanceblogs.com/forum/index.php?action=register
and sign in. Check:
http://ourfinanceblogs.com/forum/index.php?topic=7.msg9#msg9
for further details.
Click here to log access the debate
