Steve Keen's Debtwatch

Lecture 8: Introduction to dynamic modeling. (Slides: CfESI Subscribers  Part 1; Part 2; Debtwatch Subscribers Part 1 Part 2)

Explain­ing the “Mon­e­tary Cir­cuit The­o­ry” of cap­i­tal­ism. I show that the dilem­mas that hob­bled Cir­cuit The­o­ry for so long were sim­ple mis­takes in dynam­ic mod­el­ling, which reflect poor­ly not so much on Cir­cuit the­o­rists them­selves, but econ­o­mists in gen­er­al, since even non-ortho­dox econ­o­mists are locked into the sta­t­ic ways of think­ing they were taught by neo­clas­si­cal lec­tur­ers. This lec­ture gives a very brief intro­duc­tion to the basic ele­ments of dynam­ic modeling–differential equa­tions and sys­tems engineering–and begins explain­ing QED, the pro­to­type mon­e­tary dynam­ic mod­el­ing tool devel­oped by blog mem­ber Sir­ius.

I’ve just been informed by Zed Books that there is an incor­rect link, either in my blog or the excel­lent George Mon­biot Guardian arti­cle which links to it:

It’s in all our inter­ests to under­stand how to stop anoth­er Great Depres­sion

for sales in the UK.

Zed’s sales rep­re­sen­ta­tive is Ruben Mootoosamy, and the best email for sales con­tacts is sales@zedbooks.net.

This is to every­one who has signed on to the blog at a lev­el that includ­ed receiv­ing a copy of Debunk­ing Eco­nom­ics II–whether eBook, paper­back or hard­cov­er:

In lieu of not get­ting the mechan­ics of this orga­nized in time to send copies out with the launch, I am going to send every­one a signed phys­i­cal copy of the book. eBooks are too new for send­ing of those to be fea­si­ble except in the USA–and the eBook isn’t avail­able yet any­way. The sig­na­ture is by way of rec­om­pense for not get­ting deliv­ery togeth­er in time.

CLick on the link below to watch the launch. Start­ing at 6.30p Lon­don time.

Broad­Cam Video Stream­ing Serv­er Live 2

Sec­ond link

If you can’t be at the launch of Debunk­ing Eco­nom­ics II tonight, but you’d like to be, hope­ful­ly you’ll be able to watch it by click­ing on the link below. I have nev­er tried this before, so it might not work, but I am going to attempt a live pod­cast.

Click on the link  below from 6pm tonight GMT time. It won’t show any­thing before­hand (apart from an occa­sion­al test broadcast–and since I’m no oil paint­ing, I would­n’t rec­om­mend watch­ing it!)–and if the usu­al tech­ni­cal grem­lins strike, it might not show any­thing at 6pm Lon­don time either–but it’s worth a go.

A wild fort­night of tur­bu­lence in the exot­ic world of finan­cial…

AUSTRLIAN/GLOBAL RELATED NEWS LINKS:

Sharp drop for econ­o­my, IMF warns (http://www.theage.com.au/business/sharp-drop-for-economy-imf-warns-20110920–1kjn6.html)

, The Age, 20 Sept

First and fore­most, the IMF has down­grad­ed GDP fore­casts, ‘warn­ing of a new glob­al reces­sion that would hit com­mod­i­ty prices and dri­ve mil­lions world­wide into unem­ploy­ment.’ Now sug­gest­ing growth to be “anaemic” in advance economies (1.6%). ‘How­ev­er, this assumes Euro­pean pol­i­cy­mak­ers con­tain the cri­sis in the euro area periph­ery, that US pol­i­cy­mak­ers strike a judi­cious bal­ance between sup­port for the econ­o­my and medi­um-term fis­cal con­sol­i­da­tion, and that volatil­i­ty in glob­al finan­cial mar­kets does not esca­late’ the fund said.

The Occu­py Wall Street cam­paign is now in its 17th day–making it eas­i­ly the longest polit­i­cal protest of the Glob­al Finan­cial Cri­sis. Unfor­tu­nate­ly, even I was­n’t aware of it when I was in New York two weeks ago, a few days after it start­ed, since it received very lit­tle cov­er­age from the media pri­or to the arrest of about 700 pro­test­ers on the Brook­lyn Bridge.

Now it’s entrenched, and grow­ing. What­ev­er its ulti­mate out­come, it is an impor­tant event in this cri­sis, as the first glim­mer of a pop­u­lar revolt against the Ponzi cul­ture of Wall Street.

This is a reminder that the sec­ond edi­tion of Debunk­ing Eco­nom­ics will be launched tomor­row at the Uni­ver­si­ty Col­lege Lon­don in the Gus­tav Turk lec­ture the­atre, from 6–8pm. The launch will include talks by myself and Ann Pet­ti­fors on the eco­nom­ic cri­sis and the state of eco­nom­ic the­o­ry.

Copies of the paper­back will be avail­able for pur­chase at the launch for £12. I will of course sign copies that are pur­chased at (or brought to) the event.

The The­atre is rel­a­tive­ly easy to find. Enter UCL by the Gow­er Street entrance, and then walk to the right hand cor­ner of the quad­ran­gle.

Satya­jit Das, the author of Traders, Guns, and Mon­ey, has just released a new book — Extreme Mon­ey: The Mas­ters of the Uni­verse and the Cult of Risk. Satya­jit is the gen­uine insid­er-turned-informer: some­one who actu­al­ly designed, under­stood and trad­ed the com­plex CDOs and so on that helped make the world econ­o­my what it is today. As a per­son with the intel­li­gence to know that what the finance sec­tor was ask­ing math­e­mat­i­cal­ly gift­ed indi­vid­u­als like him to design, and the ethics to find this appalling, he “jumped” ship long ago, and is now one of the best crit­ics of the finan­cial sec­tor alive today.