Click here for this post in PDF: Debt­watch Mem­bers; CfE­SI Mem­bers
Click here for the data in this post: Debt­watch Mem­bers; CfE­SI Mem­bers

The ABS house price data for Decem­ber 2011 has just been released, and it shows that house prices fell 4.8% in nom­i­nal terms between Decem­ber 2010 and Decem­ber 2011. The usu­al sus­pects are already try­ing to see this as mark­ing the bot­tom, while “just the facts, ma’am” report­ing sim­ply empha­sis­es the scale of the down­turn. A cou­ple of media out­lets have asked my views on the next cal­en­dar year, so here they are–along with some his­tor­i­cal per­spec­tive on the house price bub­ble.

I would like to take this oppor­tu­ni­ty to intro­duce myself to the Debt­watch and CfE­SI com­mu­ni­ty. My name is David Law­son, and I will be com­ing on board as the Direc­tor of the Cen­tre for Eco­nom­ic Sta­bil­i­ty Incor­po­rat­ed (CfE­SI) as of the 1st of Feb­ru­ary. I have been an active com­mit­tee mem­ber of CfE­SI since its estab­lish­ment in March 2010.

The key objec­tive of this posi­tion is to free up Steve’s time so that he can focus on his research. As one of my pri­ma­ry func­tions, I will take over com­mu­ni­ca­tions with the Debt­watch blog and CfE­SI web­site. Mat­ters that require a research input will of course still be dealt with direct­ly by Steve him­self.

Syd­ney, Buenos Aires, Wash­ing­ton, Tra­verse City, New York, Lon­don… Spot the odd one out.

Tra­verse City is in Michi­gan, and for the sec­ond time in two years I found myself divert­ing from my usu­al cap­i­tal city trav­els to spend a few days near Lake Michi­gan at a “Local Future” con­fer­ence orga­nized by Aaron Wiss­ner. It’s an unusu­al con­fer­ence, with a com­mu­ni­ty focus, par­tic­i­pants from many walks of life but pre­dom­i­nant­ly con­cerned cit­i­zens rather than cor­po­rate rep­re­sen­ta­tives, and a diverse range of top­ics blend­ing ecol­o­gy, eco­nom­ics and gov­er­nance. The videos from the 2011 con­fer­ence, enti­tled “Vision-Action-Lead­er­ship”, have just been post­ed on Youtube, and they include a two-part inter­view of me by Aaron where he asked me to explain mon­ey with­out resort­ing to either Pow­er­point slides or equa­tions.

I’ve just received a copy of  “Eco­nom­ics Europe”, the  newslet­ter Bloomberg pro­duced for the World Eco­nom­ic Forum at Davos,  in which my com­men­tary on “The Future of Eco­nom­ics” was pub­lished in the Wednes­day 01.25.12 edi­tion (it’s on page 5).

Click here for this post in PDF: Debt­watch mem­bers; CfE­SI mem­bers
Click here for the data in this post: Debt­watch mem­bers; CfE­SI mem­bers

The “Glob­al Finan­cial Cri­sis”, which began in late 2007, marked a turn­ing point in the nature of mar­ket economies. Their per­for­mance from at least the mid-1960s had been under-writ­ten by a faster growth of pri­vate debt than of GDP: this was the “Age of Lever­age”. In late 2007, the growth rate of pri­vate debt fell, and since then we have been in the Age of Delever­ag­ing.

I was approached by Bloomberg to write an 800-word fea­ture on “The Future of Eco­nom­ics” for the World Eco­nom­ic Forum, which starts today in Davos. Here is the  Bloomberg newslet­ter, with my com­men­tary on page 5.

For its entire his­to­ry, macro­eco­nom­ics has been dom­i­nat­ed by math­e­mat­i­cal mod­els that ignore the exis­tence of mon­ey, debt and bank­ing, and that per­ceive the econ­o­my’s move­ment through time as tran­si­tions from one state of equi­lib­ri­um to anoth­er.

Neil Wil­son is a UK-based  finance and infor­ma­tion sys­tems pro­fes­sion­al who blogs at 3Spoken.co.uk, and who is an active par­tic­i­pant in mon­e­tary debates. He has just pub­lished a post where he takes my “God­ley table” mod­el­ing approach and rejigs it to make it con­sis­tent with dou­ble-entry book­keep­ing stan­dards.

I am no accountant–I nev­er stud­ied account­ing at uni­ver­si­ty (I did an Arts/Law degree as an under­grad­u­ate, major­ing in Eco­nom­ics with minors in Maths & Psy­chol­o­gy), and have nev­er had to devel­op the skills subsequently–so I am hap­py to take advice from some­one like Neil about how to con­form to prop­er dou­ble-entry stan­dards.

Debt­watch began in March 2007 as a way of dis­trib­ut­ing my month­ly newslet­ter on the eco­nom­ic cri­sis I expect­ed to soon erupt, and about which I had been warn­ing in media inter­views since Decem­ber 2005.

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Fig­ure 1: Excerpt from the 1st Debt­watch Report in Novem­ber 2006

From hum­ble begin­nings, the blog has grown like Top­sy to have over 12,500 sub­scribers, about 60,000 unique vis­i­tors, amost one mil­lion page views and six mil­lion hits per month.

Fig­ure 2: Debt­watch read­er­ship stats for 2011

Click here for this post in PDF (Debt­watch Mem­bers; CfE­SI Mem­bers);
Click here for the data in this post (Debt­watch Mem­bers; CfE­SI Mem­bers)

Mort­gage debt is by far the largest com­po­nent of debt in Aus­tralia today—government debt, which is the focus of polit­i­cal debate, is triv­ial by com­par­i­son (a quick caveat though—finance sec­tor debt may be larg­er again than mort­gage debt, if this claim, sourced from Mor­gan Stan­ley, is accurate—since it shows Aus­trali­a’s aggre­gate pri­vate debt ratio as almost equal to the USA’s).

Fig­ure 1

Preamble

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The fun­da­men­tal cause of the eco­nom­ic and finan­cial cri­sis that began in late 2007 was lend­ing by the finance sec­tor that pri­mar­i­ly financed spec­u­la­tion rather than invest­ment. The pri­vate debt bub­ble this caused is unprece­dent­ed, prob­a­bly in human his­to­ry and cer­tain­ly in the last cen­tu­ry (see Fig­ure 1). Its unwind­ing now is the pri­ma­ry cause of the sus­tained slump in eco­nom­ic growth. The recent growth in sov­er­eign debt is a symp­tom of this under­ly­ing cri­sis, not the cause, and the cur­rent polit­i­cal obses­sion with reduc­ing sov­er­eign debt will exac­er­bate the root prob­lem of pri­vate sec­tor delever­ag­ing.