Steve Keen's Debtwatch

As I set out in The Fall of the Com­mu­nist Dynasty, and a HT to John Hempton’s piece with­in which he con­tends that the entire Chi­nese econ­o­my is a Klep­toc­ra­cy , this week we have news from Cit­ron Research who reports that  Ever­grande Real Estate Group Ltd is ‘a decep­tion on a grande scale’ .

Cit­ron quote ;-

‘Ever­grande who ranks among the top 5 Chi­nese prop­er­ty com­pa­nies. Our analy­sis and pri­ma­ry research reveal that: 1] Ever­grande is insol­vent; and  2] Ever­grande will be severe­ly chal­lenged from a liq­uid­i­ty per­spec­tive. The Company’s man­age­ment has applied at least 6 account­ing shenani­gans to mask Evergrande’s insol­ven­cy. Our research indi­cates that a total write-­down of RMB 71bn is required and Evergrande’s pro for­ma equi­ty is neg­a­tive 36bn.’

Move over Arnie. Google tells me that “Hablan­do en pla­ta” trans­lates as “Talk in Sil­ver”. OK, so it does­n’t have the ring of “Has­ta La Vista, Baby!”, let alone the dra­mat­ic impact, but it’s now become part of my pid­gin-Span­ish ver­nac­u­lar.

Why? Watch this video–and pay close atten­tion at about the 1 minute 15 sec­ond mark.

Amaz­ing­ly, this has had over 400,000 views: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09YSNOsVebM.

This is the sec­ond video from Steve’s talks at the Fields Insti­tute in Toron­to Cana­da, enti­tled A Mon­e­tary Min­sky Mod­el. The talk focus­es on inte­grat­ing the the­o­ries of Hyman Min­sky into math­e­mat­i­cal mod­el­ling.

I’m cur­rent­ly at the Fields Insti­tute in Toron­to, work­ing with math­e­mati­cians here to devel­op my mon­e­tary mod­els. I am tak­ing part in some “no maths barred” sem­i­nars every Tues­day:

http://www.fields.utoronto.ca/programs/scientific/11–12/nonlineareconomics/

But I will also give two rather more acces­si­ble talks while here. The first is on the pri­vate debt bub­ble and its impli­ca­tions for Cana­da:

Below is Lec­ture 3 from Steve’s Advanced Polit­i­cal Econ­o­my class at the Uni­ver­si­ty of West­ern Syd­ney. The class offers an in depth cri­tique of the fail­ures of neo­clas­si­cal the­o­ries, as well as detail­ing my approach to a new eco­nom­ics.

Lec­ture 3 — Neo­clas­si­cal Pro­duc­tion Fal­lac­i­es

Geoff Davies

Micheal Pas­coe wrote a great arti­cle yes­ter­day enti­tled; Throw­ing mon­ey at hous­ing is no cure for fear. He did a poet­ic job of con­trast­ing recent record car sales to the con­tin­u­ing stag­na­tion of the hous­ing mar­ket. Michael ref­er­enced ‘the warn­ing issued by the Reserve Bank two years ago about rely­ing on res­i­den­tial real estate for­ev­er ris­ing.’ To recap, Glenn Steven’s offi­cial state­ment was:

 “I think it is a mis­take to assume that a risk-less, guar­an­teed way to pros­per­i­ty is just to be lever­aged up into prop­er­ty”

Please join the Cana­di­an Cen­tre for Pol­i­cy Alter­na­tives’ Ontario team for an evening of wine, cheese and cut­ting-edge analy­sis about the risks in Cana­da and world­wide from the con­tin­ued expan­sion of debt – fea­tur­ing renowned Aus­tralian econ­o­mist Steve Keen.

The Con­tin­u­ing Debt Bub­ble: What It Could Mean for Cana­da
Thurs­day, June 28, 2012
7:00–9:00 pm
The Arts and Let­ters Club
14 Elm Street, Toron­to ON

Spon­sored by the Cana­di­an Cen­tre for Pol­i­cy Alter­na­tives’ Ontario office, the Pro­gres­sive Eco­nom­ics Forum, and Ryer­son University’s Depart­ment of Pol­i­tics and Pub­lic Admin­is­tra­tion.

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I’m giv­ing a talk on Debunk­ing Eco­nom­ics, and the future of eco­nom­ics, to the INET Young Schol­ars Ini­tia­tive at 11am New York time today (5pm Cen­tral Euro­pean time). The Young schol­ars have kind­ly agreed to let me open this event up to read­ers of this blog. Below is a bit more infor­ma­tion about YSI from the organ­is­ers, and the login details for today’s talk.

The pur­pose of the Young Schol­ars Ini­tia­tive is to find ways to sup­port new eco­nom­ic thinkers at the ear­li­est stages of their career tra­jec­to­ry, from grad­u­ate stu­dents to new junior fac­ul­ty through to new­ly tenured fac­ul­ty. So far a social media plat­form and a face­book group have been formed in an attempt to vir­tu­al­ly recre­ate the ener­gy and momen­tum gen­er­at­ed at INET’s Berlin con­fer­ence this April.

This is the first video on endoge­nous mon­ey from Steve’s talks at the Fields Insti­tute in Toron­to Cana­da. The talk cov­ers a com­pres­sive intro­duc­tion to endoge­nous mon­ey, along with some of Steve’s lat­est mod­el­ing devel­op­ments. Here is a Primer on Endoge­nous Mon­ey: