Steve Keen's Debtwatch

The Kick­starter cam­paign to fund fur­ther devel­op­ment of Min­sky has hit its min­i­mum tar­get of $50,000, which is great.

Kick­starter Fund­ing Pro­file as at March 1st

Vis­i­tors from Debt­watch have been the most pro­lif­ic pledgers as well–though direct donors and “Twit­ter­ers” have been the most gen­er­ous in the aggre­gate, and Open Source fans from with­in the Kick­starter com­mu­ni­ty have been the most gen­er­ous on a per capi­ta basis:

Kick­starter Pledgers Pro­file March 1st–the top 5

There’s an excel­lent post by John Car­ney, CNBC’s Senior Edi­tor, on the mechan­ics of lend­ing, deposit cre­ation, and how these inter­act with reg­u­la­to­ry and cap­i­tal require­ments. High­ly rec­om­mend­ed:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100497710

I’ll have a crack at mod­el­ing this in Min­sky short­ly; I have already done a sim­i­lar mod­el to illus­trate why reserves lag deposits in almost all coun­tries, so it should­n’t be too dif­fi­cult to knock this illus­tra­tion up in it.

I was going to write a piece about how Paul Krug­man doesn’t under­stand IS-LM today, but as often hap­pens when I read Krug­man, I find myself agree­ing with him – even if our approach­es to eco­nom­ic analy­sis are very dif­fer­ent.

INET is hold­ing a grad­u­ate stu­dent work­shop pri­or to its upcom­ing ple­nary con­fer­ence in Hong Kong on April 4–7.

The 2‑day work­shop con­sists of a mini course in 20th cen­tu­ry his­to­ry of eco­nom­ic thought and anoth­er mini course on sta­tis­ti­cal learn­ing. Plus, there will be stu­dent pre­sen­ta­tions. INET cov­ers expens­es for trav­el and hotel — this should be quite attrac­tive for stu­dents. Details here:

http://ineteconomics.org/ysi-hong-kong/­work­shop

Stu­dents have to apply online (fol­low link above). The dead­line for appli­ca­tion is Feb 24, so please hur­ry!

I’m speak­ing at a lunchtime sem­i­nar for the Eco­nom­ic Soci­ety of Aus­tralia NSW Branch on Thurs­day Feb­ru­ary 28th, in the Ground Floor East Sem­i­nar Room of the Reserve Bank of Aus­tralia in 65 Mar­tin Place Syd­ney. The func­tion will start with light refresh­ments at 12.15pm, with a 12.30pm start; it will fin­ish between 1.15pm and 1.30pm.

My top­ic is “Explain­ing the Cri­sis Using Pri­vate Debt and Aggre­gate Demand” (see the abstract below). It’s free for mem­bers; if you’re not one, I expect that you would have to join the soci­ety to be able to attend. If you’d like to attend, send an email to ecosocnsw@ecosoc.org.au.

Econ­o­mists are wont to crit­i­cise habits as a sign of irra­tional­i­ty, but they’re often a sen­si­ble rule of thumb that stops us doing oth­er things we’ll lat­er regret.

A case in point: over the years, I’ve devel­oped the habit of not read­ing Ross Git­tins. Last week I broke that habit, and the expe­ri­ence remind­ed me of how sen­si­ble that habit was.

Click here to read the rest of this post

Help reform eco­nom­ics. Kick­start Min­sky now!: http://t.co/rzFwjEnJ

The Kick­starter cam­paign to raise funds to fur­ther devel­op “Min­sky”, my dynam­ic mon­e­tary sim­u­la­tion pro­gram, has been launched. The imme­di­ate objec­tive is to raise $50,000, which will enable the cur­rent ver­sion of Min­sky to be com­plet­ed. The ulti­mate goal is to raise $1 mil­lion or more to ful­ly devel­op the con­cept.

Click here for the Kick­starter cam­paign. If you have appre­ci­at­ed my work over the last sev­en years to warn about the eco­nom­ic cri­sis, to devel­op an approach to macro­eco­nom­ics that can under­stand why it hap­pened, and to devel­op poli­cies that might help end it, the please show this by mak­ing a pledge.

Ear­ly on Sat­ur­day morn­ing New York time, I’m launch­ing a Kick­starter cam­paign to raise funds to fur­ther devel­op my Min­sky mod­el­ing pro­gram. The draft pitch can be seen here (until the actu­al one goes live):

Draft Kick­starter Min­sky cam­paign

This post is to give a quick “what it is and why it’s new” overview of Min­sky via ten videos in a Youtube playlist.

The simplest example: graphing a simple function

Modeling exponential growth

Exponential growth and exponential decay

Interacting populations–the “predator-prey” model

A simple cyclical economic model (Goodwin’s 1867 Growth Cycle Model)

As I wrote just before the data was released, I expect­ed house prices to rise at a lev­el “either below or bare­ly above CPI infla­tion”:

The ABS House Price Index Data will pub­lished at 11.30am today. My Mort­gage Accel­er­a­tor data indi­cates that it will show a fur­ther rise in house prices—though at an anaemic lev­el of either below or bare­ly above CPI infla­tion.

In fact, the num­bers came out spot on at the rate of CPI infla­tion over the pre­vi­ous year:

Here’s the chart I pub­lished before the fig­ures were released:

The ABS House Price Index Data will pub­lished at 11.30am today. My Mort­gage Accel­er­a­tor data indi­cates that it will show a fur­ther rise in house prices—though at an anaemic lev­el of either below or bare­ly above CPI infla­tion.

The cor­re­la­tion coef­fi­cient between these two series is 0.853.