This is probably the most detailed seminar I have given on my views on monetary macroeconomics. I begin with the data that, back in December 2005, led me to expect that a huge economic crisis was imminent: the ratio of private debt to GDP. Then I explain why this ratio matters, in contrast to the arguments that Neoclassical economists put that only the distribution of debt matters. This takes me through the empirical data, the theories of Schumpeter and Minsky, and the mathematics needed to prove that “aggregate demand equals income plus the change in debt” is correct, and that this does not involve double-counting.
Second section