New York Debtwatch Talk: Modelling Debt Deflation

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The blog now has over 5000 mem­bers, and about 40 of them crowd­ed into a small room in the Flat­Iron dis­trict of New York to hear me give a talk on debt-defla­tion. Since I had the lux­u­ry of more time than you get at an aca­d­e­m­ic con­fer­ence, and an engag­ing and intel­li­gent audi­ence, I gave a lot more detail on my mod­el­ling approach. The ques­tions were also superb, and would have con­tin­ued for much longer if I had­n’t called quits at an oppor­tune point (the whole caboo­dle of pre­sen­ta­tion and dis­cus­sion is almost 70 min­utes long). My answers come through loud and clear on this video; I just hope that the ques­tions them­selves can be heard by bet­ter ears than mine!

| Open Play­er in New Win­dow

The pre­sen­ta­tion slides are linked here, and the paper here. The pre­sen­ta­tion is new and much more detailed than the one I gave at the Levy; the paper is the same as that linked to the Levy pre­sen­ta­tion.

I am still doing some devel­op­ment work on this mod­el, includ­ing expand­ing it to include fiat as well as cred­it mon­ey (and I hope ulti­mate­ly to fit it to the US data as well), but for now it’s the most com­plete sin­gle sec­toral mod­el of debt-defla­tion I’ve put togeth­er.

I’ve also linked an MP4 for­mat file here, since the Flash Video com­pres­sion seems to result in rather hard to read text on the slides.

PS I’ve just checked part of the video above, and after a while there’s a very large gap between the visu­als and my com­men­tary. This is prob­a­bly due to my stuff-up when I got back from New York: I used an auto­mat­ic back­up pro­gram to trans­fer files from the cam­era to my com­put­er, and then delet­ed the files from the camera–only to find that the New York mate­r­i­al had­n’t been trans­ferred!

An undelete pro­gram saved my bacon (thank you File Restore Plus), but in such oper­a­tions there’s always some prob­lem, and this is one of them. Nonethe­less it’s bet­ter than los­ing the whole thing. So please put up with the dis­con­nect.